A.M. Look 12/4/14

Stocks...
Spu’s…the initial swing count is still 2120 which was generated from the 1813 Oct. Low
 
DAX…10,000-10,050 is the resistance zone and the closing upside pivot.
ASX 200...5380 is resistance and the upside closing momentum level, with 5418 being the 200 DMA
C…Citibank is in play. it needs to hold 54.50 on a break to keep the weekly ORH pattern alive.
OXY…the new momentum level is 83.10. Above, there is room to 84.50 and then 85.70.
Bonds
30 Yr. Futures…the world is trading (H) March Bonds, however I’m in Dec Bonds which need to hold around 141.31 to avoid a further slide.
FX…

Euro…122.30 is mvg avg support.
USD/JPY…I’m looking for an eventual running of the long term dollar buy stops @
124.16 (app 80.50 in the Dec Futures).
We’re talking April 2007 levels in the Yen.
Commodities
OIL…short term point & figure resistance is 68.10. Only price action above 69.50 will hurt the long term Bears. Sustaining above this level is needed for another 2-3 dollar rally.
Brent…74.57 is resistance and the upside closing pivot.
Silver….today into tomorrow is decision time for the metals. Sustained price action over 16.80 is needed to extend the rally.

General Comments or Valuable Insight

The ECB news release is @ 6:45 A.M. CDT.
The ECB news conference with Draghi is @ 7:30 CDT.

Simply put, the Lemmings will be in full flight by the time NY opens.
The Dax will be running the show!
It will be a price action trade. Pay particular attention to new highs in the Equity Indices
with reversals lower after 7:30.
That type of price action will surely run out a lot of new weak longs.
It will then be about where individual instruments start and stop (hold on a break).
My friend Yra Harris.. YraHarris.com.. has been blogging about the importance of
EUR/GOLD has the same formation. This spread can be very active today into tomorrow.

It’s at a level that either rejects or follows through. It’s a low probability level to initiate a new position since there is not great trade location.

These spreads have the potential for volatility off the ECB
So far the GDX calls didn’t work out but there is hope for the SLV calls going into tomorrow.
For those that got them on, IBM & Citibank Calls more than made up for the Miners.
Just a general note about punting on the weekly options, remember to feed the beast.
Pay for the trade and let some ride.
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Current Positions….

                                                         Entry     Stop              TGT

Long Ford (F)                                   14.19     14.00 Close

Long GDX 5 DEC 14 21 Call              .36
​Long​ JJG                                            38.21
​Long​ SLV 12 DEC 15 16.50 Call        .16
141203_141700_CQG_Integrated_Client_Chart_SIEH5_-_Silver_(Globex)_Mar_15_Point_&_Figure_50x3_Ticks
141204_052315_CQG_Integrated_Client_Chart_IEURUSD_GCEG5_Daily_Spread_Bar
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