Matches occur when multiple markets hit similar significant technical levels. Due to the interconnected nature of markets, this situation collectively reinforces the importance of those levels, and confirmation (or failure) will likewise be critical signals. When matches occur you typically see rebounds…or directional price rejection. Further analysis is then required to determine the length of a bounce.
Outside Reversal Higher. When a market’s price range for a particular period is outside the prior period’s range, it is an outside range. A new low from the prior period or bar followed by a new high and a close over the previous bars high – this is an ORH. These are significant as they often occur at the end of a primary downtrend. Multiple time frames can be considered and their significance weighted with other technical factors. They can telegraph big trend changes.
Outside Reversal Lower. When a market’s price range for a particular period is outside the prior period’s range, it is an outside range. A new high from the prior period or bar followed by a new low and a close below the previous bars low – this is an ORL. These are significant as they as they often occur at the end of a primary uptrend. Multiple time frames can be considered and their significance weighted with other technical factors. They can telegraph big trend changes.
Why are these important?
The (OR) Outside Reversal levels are typically where shorter-term players have “Trailing” or “Resting” stops for profit protection. We identify and track these areas to determine if a trend is abating or it’s just a level that is washing out shorter-time frame investors.
This is where the rubber meets the road and direction is decided.
A pivot point is generally calculated as an average of the high, low, and closing prices of the prior trading period of a particular market. Some market technicians include the opening price in the average, and some more heavily weight the closing value.
We keep it simple…A pivot is a macro level that will either confirm or reject price action. Once below…you sell before you buy. Above … you buy before you sell. When we use the word pivot, we mean just that. It’s a # that sets directional tone.
Short term high frequency traders who trade Long or Short positions intra-day.
Lemming Effect Trade
Lemmings are little beasts that occasionally form up into a herd and plunge to their collective deaths off steep cliffs. This occurs when momentum traders all pile, one-way, into the same trade. This usually has a bad ending as well.
Time Frame Trading
While some short term traders consider a time frame in the minutes or minute, we have a much broader view. We refer to when different regional players come into the market. This can be Europe’s opening and Asia’s close or the U.S. opening of Futures through London’s close and NYC’s lunch time. The bigger time frames always start and stop at the end or beginning of a major Financial center’s trading hours. This is when we look for order flow to ebb, and possibly change direction.
A certain amount of back and forth, or up and down is needed to ascertain the next price expansion or move. Many times an analyst will need verification of patterns for the next move in direction.
Price action can be a market or markets coming into key technical levels and rejecting those areas, then reversing direction.
As technicians we want to see how a particular instrument reacts at a specific price or level.
Price Action. Is the instrument holding or failing the level? Does the instrument reject or follow through in direction? Then we measure that distance for keys to the next move.
The Mid-Week shuffle (often times involves “Rip Your Face Off” contra-trend direction) is a time when markets are trying to affirm or change direction.
This involves instruments that are trying to relieve the directional pressure (RSI’s) – general price action that tries to drive out directional players.
This refers to my “Quote Board” which is comprised of all the MAJOR World Bond, Currency, Stocks, Stock Indices and Commodity Markets.
Risk On is generally a concerted buying of stocks and high yielding assets generated by easy money looking for a return.
Risk Off is a De-leveraging of those trades. Investors sell ( liquidate holdings) across all asset classes and buy Bonds for safety.
The level or area to best manage your risk. This comes down to Intelligent Risk Management. Where can an investor initiate a trade with a defined risk parameter (STOP) and have a reasonable risk reward ratio ( at least 3-1).
Where can you initiate a trade and have a reasonable chance of success?
In other words…know where you’re wrong. This has two key elements..Timing and Technical level. Both need to be correct. This is the when and where – so crucial for low risk investing.
We are referring to where we are measuring Fibonacci retracements or extensions. This is based off an assessment of how we see a particular instrument behaving or Moving.
Where did it start and where can it end?
Is the instrument doing an intermediate wiggle or is it on a bigger mission…yearly or multi-year retraces?
These measurements can vary in length. A big swing, in our view, is multi-year, however we do measure distances after “significant” fast moves for rebounds.
Long S&P 500 Futures / Short 30 Yr.Bond Futures. This is an indicator of Capital Flow – “Is money is moving into equities and out of Bonds?”
(So called “Black Box”) Computer driven high frequency trading machines . The Boxes are synthetic trading machines that utilize highly advanced algorithms ( synthetic Intelligence). These Boxes rely on humans for programming and turning the power switch on and off.
Stop On Close
A “Buy Stop On Close” is elected when an instrument is trading @ or above a specific # in the last minute of trading.
A “Sell Stop on close” is elected when an instrument is trading @ or below a specific # in the last minute of trading.
The stop order becomes a market order in the last minute of trading in a specific session if the price is within the closing price range.
If the stop price is within the closing range, it automatically gets elected as a market order.
I.E. NYSE Close @ 3:59- 4 P.M. EST.
Market On Close…”MOC”
Buy or Sell an instrument @ the market at the end of a particular session.